- Kadima 37 MKs
- Labor 19 Mks
- Likud 15 Mks
- Mafdal with Ihud Leumi 11 Mks
- Israel Beitenu 9 Mks
- Shas 9 Mks
- Yahadut Ha-Torah 7 Mks
- Meretz 6 Mks
Now lets look at the possibilities:
Lets take a look at the first possibility:
Kadima, Labor and Meretz totaling in 62 Mks. This coalition is possible since all three parties share the same idea of further unilateral separation. The union of Kadima and Labor would seem quite natural since almost half of Kadima key members are ex-Laborists. On the other hand, Kadima might loose any public support since their voters voted center not extreme left.
Meretz could be replaced by any of the religious parties that would sell their support for many millions of government money. Now this I see as the most likely scenario.
The second possibility:
Kadima, Likud and Shas totaling in 61 Mks. The union of Kadima and Likud would seem natural for the very same reason as with Labor. Shas would, as always sell it's support for money, but I see the problem with Likud. I'm not sure whether Netaniyahu would agree to be in second place, especially after Olmert, and he has hopes of being prime minister again on the next elections, and being in this government could cost him that.
The third option:
The right wing coalition. Kadima, Likud and Israel Beitenu or Mafdal with Ihud Leumi – 61-63 Mks. The least likely possibility. I simply don't know how in this case Kadima would be able to fulfill it's promise of another unilateral disengagement. I know that neither Israel Beitenu or Mafdal with Ihud Leumi would agree to that. Kadima can't ignore it's own promise since in this case it would simply be torn apart from within.
After such thoughts, I think I need a drink.
I don't drink, but I still need one. It's damn depressing.