Tuesday, March 07, 2006

The next coalition, who it might be

Looking at the recent polls I started wondering what the next coalition would look like. Lets see the polls results first:
  • Kadima 37 MKs
  • Labor 19 Mks
  • Likud 15 Mks
  • Mafdal with Ihud Leumi 11 Mks
  • Israel Beitenu 9 Mks
  • Shas 9 Mks
  • Yahadut Ha-Torah 7 Mks
  • Meretz 6 Mks
I must warn you that I didn't find the official poll results, so even the numbers could be incorrect.
Now lets look at the possibilities:
Lets take a look at the first possibility:
Kadima, Labor and Meretz totaling in 62 Mks. This coalition is possible since all three parties share the same idea of further unilateral separation. The union of Kadima and Labor would seem quite natural since almost half of Kadima key members are ex-Laborists. On the other hand, Kadima might loose any public support since their voters voted center not extreme left.
Meretz could be replaced by any of the religious parties that would sell their support for many millions of government money. Now this I see as the most likely scenario.
The second possibility:
Kadima, Likud and Shas totaling in 61 Mks. The union of Kadima and Likud would seem natural for the very same reason as with Labor. Shas would, as always sell it's support for money, but I see the problem with Likud. I'm not sure whether Netaniyahu would agree to be in second place, especially after Olmert, and he has hopes of being prime minister again on the next elections, and being in this government could cost him that.
The third option:
The right wing coalition. Kadima, Likud and Israel Beitenu or Mafdal with Ihud Leumi – 61-63 Mks. The least likely possibility. I simply don't know how in this case Kadima would be able to fulfill it's promise of another unilateral disengagement. I know that neither Israel Beitenu or Mafdal with Ihud Leumi would agree to that. Kadima can't ignore it's own promise since in this case it would simply be torn apart from within.

After such thoughts, I think I need a drink.
I don't drink, but I still need one. It's damn depressing.


Irina Tsukerman said...

Well, it *does* sound pretty bad.

BUT then again, Israel's history has sounded pretty bad for the last 58 years and before... and it made it through... somehow.

A poor consolation in light of the latest political developments, but I don't know what else to say.

Yury Puzis said...

I also incline to think it will be Kadima+Avoda+Shas. Shas will give the coalition a "right-wing" flavour, which will balance off Avoda and create an illusion of centrism. Meretz might pass some of it's anti-popolarity to Kadima. Shas is then the better choice. Avoda is also better then Likud for Kadima because Amir's demands will be social, a much less problematic issue for Olmert then the polytical demands of Netaniahu. Besides, with Peres #3...
The numbers however seem too good for Kadima. I say they get much less, 30+.